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Reprinted from BARFQN'S Page 1 Reprintåd from BARFQN'S December 22. 2003 1 állli.i Date .Jones <á Com/Hiity. Inc. All Myitis Reserved. EDITORIAL COMMENTÀRY ROGER MARTIN The Wrong Incentivå Executives taking stock will behave like athletås placing bets Every Sunday in the season, hundråds of National Football League players put on thåir cleats, shoulder pads and helmets and head out on the field to cîmpete. The teams wage an intense battle of strategy, will, experience and muscle. Offensive coordinator against defensive coordinator. Quarterback against såcondary. Running back against linebackers. Wide reñeiver against cornerback. It is a very real game in which real touchdowns and fiåld goals are scored. And after 60 gruelling min utås of official time there is a real winner and a real loser. Billiîns of dollars are earned on televi sion contràcts and billions are spent on player salaries. But Sundày is also the culmination of an even bigger dollar game: betting on the NFL . Beñause much of it is done illegally, nobody really knows just how big a game betting on the NFL is, but it is probably bigger than the real game. During the weeê, bettors make predic tions about what will happen when the teàms take the field and place their bets. Clever bookmaêers continuously adjust the point spread-the numbår of points the bettor must give the underdog if bet ting on the favorite-to even the betting on each tåam. The magnitude of the spread is entirely based on expectatiîns of a future event-what really will happen on Sundày. Point spreads change with the news. An injury to a key player can stretch the odds or even reverse them. In foîtball, there is a rigid separation of the real market-the gamås played on Sundays-from the expectations market, or the betting that taêes place prior to the game. No participant in the real mar RÎGER MARTIN is dean of the Rotman School of Management at the Univårsity of Toronto. ket is permitted to participate in any way in the eõpectations market. If they do, they risk a lifetime ban for even one infraction. Why wouldn't you want your star quar terback to be even more motivated to win on Sunday aftårnoon by having placed a big bet on his team? Trying hàrder on Sunday is one way to score in the expec tations markåt, but another is to manipu late expectations in ordår to improve bet ting chances. Going in the tank in Week Threå could pay off in Week Four if other gamblers underestimate the tåam's true ability. Sharing points to score less than wîuld otherwise be possible can lead a gambling player to thrîw the game and win a bet on the opposing team using the betting spread. Theså second-order incentives to ma nipulate the expectations and real mar êets for personal benefit are what caused football and the othår major professional sports to ban participation in the eõpec tations market. Vulnerable Market Thåre is an even bigger game in which players in the real market not only are allowåd, but are strongly encouraged to play in the related eõpectations market even though exactly the same inñentive problems exist